https://www.gokcincinar.com/tag/fleet-projection/Fleet ProjectionHugo Blox Builder (https://hugoblox.com)en-usFri, 10 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000https://www.gokcincinar.com/media/logo.svghttps://www.gokcincinar.com/tag/fleet-projection/https://www.gokcincinar.com/research/floatie/Fri, 10 Oct 2025 00:00:00 +0000https://www.gokcincinar.com/research/floatie/<p>Novel aircraft design must be evaluated from the system level to the fleet level to fully understand the impact of new technologies, operational strategies, and long-term fleet integration. The Fleet Level Operations and Technology Integration Environment (FLOATIE) was developed to bridge this gap by coupling physics-based aircraft modeling with fleet-scale evolution and forecasting.</p> <p>FLOATIE integrates directly with the Future Aircraft Sizing Tool (FAST) to perform detailed aircraft sizing and off-design performance analysis. Technology upgrades—such as hybrid-electric propulsion, advanced aerodynamics, or more-electric subsystems—are modeled using technology impact factors that quantify changes in weight, lift-to-drag ratio, power demand, and fuel burn.</p> <p>At the fleet level, FLOATIE simulates aircraft retirement, replacement, and introduction schedules using traffic growth rates and utilization data to evolve the fleet year by year. This enables long-term forecasting of fuel consumption, emissions trends, and fleet composition under different technology and operational assumptions. The framework supports payload-range comparisons, air traffic management efficiency assessments, and probabilistic technology adoption modeling to evaluate the combined effect of emerging technologies and policy changes.</p> <p>Together, these capabilities make FLOATIE a multi-scale decision-support environment that connects detailed aircraft performance modeling with strategic fleet-planning insights—helping identify which technologies and operational improvements offer the greatest system-wide benefits for sustainable aviation.</p> <p>This work was sponsored by Collins Aerospace under the Emissions Forecasting project.</p> <p> <figure id="figure-evolution-of-baseline-fleet-with-retirements-and-aircraft-upgrades-for-30-years"> <div class="d-flex justify-content-center"> <div class="w-100" ><img alt="Fig" src="https://www.gokcincinar.com/research/floatie/fleet_projection_animation.gif" loading="lazy" data-zoomable /></div> </div><figcaption> Evolution of baseline fleet with retirements and aircraft upgrades for 30 years. </figcaption></figure> </p> <p> <figure id="figure-fuel-burn-comparison-of-baseline-versus-upgraded-technology-fleet-over-30-years"> <div class="d-flex justify-content-center"> <div class="w-100" ><img alt="Fig" src="https://www.gokcincinar.com/research/floatie/fleetfuelburn_compare.gif" loading="lazy" data-zoomable /></div> </div><figcaption> Fuel burn comparison of baseline versus upgraded technology fleet over 30 years. </figcaption></figure> </p>